The Global Financial Crisis and its Impact on Emerging Markets: A CGE Assessment

Abstract

The global financial crisis (GFC) began four years ago, but the world economy is still in its shadow. The sluggishness of the economic recovery in the US and the recurrences of the European debt crises destroy the confidence of investors as well as consumers. "Double dip" appears as a threat from time to time. Under these circumstances, it is imperative to understand fully the impact of the GFC and the effectiveness of various policy responses to it. Using the GTAP model, the GTAP database version 7 and macroeconomic data, this paper will gauge the impact of the GFC on emerging markets. The paper also reports the simulation results assessing the effect of policy responses. By analyzing the simulation results, this paper will shed light on the contributing factors of the GFC and the efficient ways to cope with a large negative economic shock like the GFC.