The potential distribution of 'Lantana camara' L. in relation to climate change

Abstract

'Lantana camara' L. (lantana) is a major weed in many tropical and subtropical countries outside its native range (Day et al. 2003). In Australia, lantana currently covers more than 4 million ha and has significant ecological and economic impacts (Johnson, 2007). It has been declared a weed of national significance (Thorpe and Lynch, 2000). Climate change is an important consideration in assessing the risks posed by this weed. This research examines the effect of climate change on the distribution of lantana in continental Australia. CLIMEX Version 3 (Sutherst & Maywald, 1985) was used to develop a predictive model of the potential distribution of L. camara under current as well as climate change scenarios in Australia. This was done using two Global Climate Models (GCMs), Echam mark 3 (ECHAM3) and Hadley Centre mark 2 (HadCM2). The models were run with high as well as low emission scenarios for the 2030s and 2070s.