Mapping global risk levels of Bemisia tabaci in areas of suitability for open field tomato cultivation under current and future climates

Abstract

The whitefly, <I>Bemisia tabaci</I>, is a major threat to tomato <I>Solanum lycopersicum</I> and ranks as one of the world's 100 most invasive pests. This is the first study of <I>B. tabaci</I> (Biotype B and Q) global distribution, focusing on risk levels of this invasive pest, in areas projected to be suitable for open field <I>S. lycopersicum</I> cultivation under climate change. This study aims to identify levels of risk of invasive <I>B. tabaci</I> for areas of suitability for open field <I>S. lycopersicum</I> cultivation for the present, 2050 and 2070 using MaxEnt and the Global Climate Model, HadGEM2_ES under RCP45. Our results show that 5% of areas optimal for open field <I>S. lycopersicum</I> cultivation are currently at high risk of <I>B. tabaci</I>. Among the optimal areas for <I>S. lycopersicum</I>, the projections for 2050 compared to the current time showed an extension of 180% in areas under high risk, and a shortening of 67 and 27% in areas under medium and low risk of <I>B. tabaci</I>, respectively, while projections for 2070 showed an extension of 164, and a shortening of 49 and 64% under high, medium and low risk, respectively. The basis of these projections is that predicted temperature increases could affect the pest, which has great adaptability to different climate conditions, but could also impose limitations on the growth of <I>S. lycopersicum</I>. These results may be used in designing strategies to prevent the introduction and establishment of <I>B. tabaci</I> for open-field tomato crops, and assist the implementation of pest management programs.