Soil moisture forecasting for irrigation recommendation

Abstract

This study integrates measured soil moisture sensor data, a remotely sensed crop vegetation index, and weather data to train models, in order to predict future soil moisture. The study was carried out on a cotton farm, with wireless soil moisture monitoring equipment deployed across five plots. Lasso, Decision Tree, Random Forest and Support Vector Machine modeling methods were trialled. Random Forest models gave consistently good results (mean 7-day prediction error from 8.0 to 16.9 kPA except in one plot with malfunctioning sensors). Linear regression with two of the most important predictor variables was not as accurate, but allowed extraction of an interpretable model. The system was implemented in Google Cloud Platform and a model was trained continuously through the season. An online irrigation dashboard was created showing previous and forecast soil moisture conditions, along with weather and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). This was used to guide operators in advance of irrigation water needs. The methodology developed in this study could be used as part of a closed-loop sensing and irrigation automation system.