Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/1959.11/18796
Title: Crop niche modeling projects major shifts in common bean growing areas
Contributor(s): Ramirez Cabral, Nadiezhda Yakovleva Zitz (author); Kumar, Lalit (author)orcid ; Taylor, Subhashni (author)orcid 
Publication Date: 2016
DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2015.12.002
Handle Link: https://hdl.handle.net/1959.11/18796
Abstract: Crops experience different climate stresses during development. The magnitude of damage will depend on the phenological stage of the crop and the stress duration. Climate change could intensify some or all of these stresses, thus negatively impacting agriculture. An assessment of staple crop productivity,quality and climatically suitable areas under climate change conditions is necessary to undertake any global initiatives to tackle food security issues. The common bean ('Phaseolus vulgaris' L.) is a staple crop and the main source of proteins and nutrients in Africa and Latin America. The purpose of this study is to develop a process-oriented niche model to assess the impacts of climate change on the current and future potential distribution of common bean and to use this model to investigate the changes in heat, cold, dry and wet stresses under climate change. We used A2 and A1B emission scenarios and two different global climate models, CSIRO-Mk3.0 and MIROC-H, for the years 2050 and 2100. Our results indicate future climate conditions are more favorable for common bean cultivation in the Northern Hemisphere, but are less favorable in the Southern Hemisphere. Heat and dry stresses are the main factors limiting and reducing common bean distribution under current and future projected conditions. Africa and Latin America are projected to decrease with respect to suitability for common bean cultivation. The model projections indicate that a shift in the common bean productive areas is highly likely with a loss of suitability of the current common bean cultivation areas and an increase in cold regions such as Canada, the Nordic countries and Russia. The results indicate the likelihood of changes in climatic suitability and the distribution of common bean at a global scale under a future climate, which will affect regions where this legume is a staple crop and an important source of household income. Regions in the Northern Hemisphere could take advantage of the increase in suitability by increasing the production and exportation of this grain.
Publication Type: Journal Article
Source of Publication: Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, v.218-219, p. 102-113
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Place of Publication: Amsterdam, Netherlands
ISSN: 0168-1923
1873-2240
Field of Research (FOR): 050104 Landscape Ecology
050209 Natural Resource Management
050206 Environmental Monitoring
Peer Reviewed: Yes
HERDC Category Description: C1 Refereed Article in a Scholarly Journal
Statistics to Oct 2018: Visitors: 173
Views: 316
Downloads: 1
Appears in Collections:Journal Article
School of Environmental and Rural Science

Files in This Item:
2 files
File Description SizeFormat 
Show full item record

SCOPUSTM   
Citations

19
checked on Nov 26, 2018

Page view(s)

86
checked on Jan 12, 2019
Google Media

Google ScholarTM

Check

Altmetric

SCOPUSTM   
Citations

 

WEB OF SCIENCETM
Citations

 

Items in Research UNE are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.