Impact of Climate Change on Coconut Production in Different Agro-ecological Regions of Sri Lanka

Abstract

Climate change is expected to be a main challenge for crop production and thereby the food security of the low latitude countries. Therefore, it is important to identify the potential crop production in these regions under the predicted climatic conditions to ascertain necessary policy decisions. Coconut is mainly a rainfed perennial grown in nearly 20 percent of the arable lands in Sri Lanie which nourishes the economy through numerous industries and rural livelihood. Currently the production is stagnating and the demand is continuously growing for export processing and domestic consumption. Previous studies concluded that nearly 60 percent of the coconut yield is climate determined especially the rainfall. Amongst many methods, considering the data availability, this study attempted a Land Suitability Analysis with the decision support system approach. It incorporated climate of the study area, soil, topography and phenology aspects of the coconut palm. Three sites in three agro-ecological regions were selected for the study. Climate change predictions were made using a group of global models. The results indicated that there is a regional variation in predicted climate and thereby the coconut production. The total impact is negative for coconut production by 2020 and the situation will be aggravated towards the scenarios in 2050 affecting the coconut supply. Therefore, effective adaptation measures are crucial to sustain coconut production.