Global geographic distribution of Tuta absoluta as affected by climate change

Abstract

Over the last 10 years, the insect <i>Tuta absoluta</i> has become one of the most important threats to agriculture worldwide. Since its introduction in Spain in 2006, this pest has infested 60% of the tomato crops in many regions of the world. Here we present the geographic distribution of <i>T. absoluta</i> at a global scale. Through the combination of spatial distribution models and the current distribution of the pest, this research makes projections of the threatened regions for this insect at the present and future times. We modelled the pest’s potential distribution based on its new thermal requirement and the stress factors which limit this pest in Brazil. The model presented here showed large suitable areas for the tomato pinworm in the North and Central Americas, Africa, Europe, Asia and Oceania for the current and future times. Important tomato producers such as China, Mexico and the USA should be concerned about the risk of an eventual invasion of <i>T. absoluta</i> due to their climatic suitability for this pest. The climate changes predicted will affect <i>T. absoluta</i> negatively around the equator and positively near the poles. Regions with high latitude, for example the USA and northern Europe, will become more suitable for the tomato pinworm due to the increase in temperature due to climate change. This study provides a comprehensive and current CLIMEX modelling effort for <i>T. absoluta</i>, allowing pest management agencies to increase their vigilance and improve quarantine measures.