Impact of an emissions trading scheme on Australian households: A computable general equilibrium analysis

Abstract

Following the international commitment to tackle climate change issues, many countries have introduced climate change policies to reduce emission levels. Australia also expects to follow the international pathways to implement a climate change policy to curb its greenhouse gas emissions. In this context, the former Labor Government in Australia intended to switch its carbon tax policy to an emissions trading scheme (ETS) after 2 years of its initial operation to achieve an emission target of 5 per cent below the 2000 level by 2020. By employing a computable general equilibrium model and a social accounting matrix database, this article analyses the potential impacts of an ETS with various revenue recycling options on Australian households. Results show that an emission permit price of A$20 per tonne of CO2-e would help Australia to achieve the 2020 emission reduction target. This permit price is likely to have a small contraction in Australia’s real GDP (i.e. about 0.3 per cent) and in real household consumption (i.e. about 0.19 per cent). The price of electricity is projected to increase by 13 per cent. The revenue recycling options seem to create an improvement in the macro-economy and there is a trade-off between economic efficiency and equity in the Australian economy with compensations. The personal income tax reduction policy results in an economic efficiency with a positive change in real aggregate household consumption whereas providing an equal lump-sum transfer brings benefits equally for all household groups. Increased government transfers based on recipients’ current pension and allowance rates generate more welfare gains for middle-income household groups.