Taleb's Notions of Antifragility and Optionality, and their Relevance for the Commission's Work

Abstract

This thought-piece canvasses the dramatic forces at work likely to reshape rural economic and social life in coming decades and their implication for how increasingly fragile rural society must adapt quickly to changing circumstances. It focuses in particular on how the small and medium sized businesses, which are so prominent in rural areas, should manage their enterprises to survive growing uncertainty. And employing Taleb's notions of optionality, we explore the changing cultures, mindsets, and behaviours that are likely to help in both this survival task and also the seizing of many new business opportunities that will emerge in coming years. In many ways, this psychological reorientation can draw on the culture; of successful places like Silicon Valley, and especially their can-do, risk accepting, trendsetting and mutual supportive environments. The roles of governments will also change in such environments. Our discussion will terminate with a 13-point research agenda to investigate the means of shoring up rural sustainability under such taxing conditions.