Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/1959.11/6319
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dc.contributor.authorSchmidt, Danielen
dc.contributor.authorSpring, Danielen
dc.contributor.authorMacNally, Ralphen
dc.contributor.authorThomson, James Ren
dc.contributor.authorBrook, Barry Wen
dc.contributor.authorCacho, Oscar Joseen
dc.contributor.authorMcKenzie, Michaelen
dc.date.accessioned2010-08-02T10:22:00Z
dc.date.issued2010en
dc.identifier.citationEcological Applications, 20(5), p. 1217-1227en
dc.identifier.issn1939-5582en
dc.identifier.issn1051-0761en
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/1959.11/6319en
dc.description.abstractTo eradicate or effectively contain a biological invasion, all or most reproductive individuals of the invasion must be found and destroyed. To help find individual invading organisms, predictions of probable locations can be made with statistical models. We estimated spread dynamics based on time-series data and then used model-derived predictions of probable locations of individuals. We considered one of the largest datasets available for an eradication program - the campaign to eradicate the red imported fire ant ('Solenopsis invicta') from around Brisbane, Australia. After estimating within-site growth (local growth) and inter-site dispersal (saltatory spread) of fire ant nests, we modeled probabilities of fire ant presence for > 600 000 1-ha sites, including uncertainties about fire ant population and spatial dynamics. Such a high level of spatial detail is required to assist surveillance efforts, but is difficult to incorporate into common modeling methods because of high computational costs. More than twice as many fire ant nests would have been found in 2008 using predictions made with our method rather than those made with the method currently used in the study region. Our method is suited to considering invasions in which a large area is occupied by the invader at low density. Improved predictions of such invasions can dramatically reduce the area that needs to be searched to find the majority of individuals, assisting containment efforts and potentially making eradication a realistic goal for many invasions previously thought to be ineradicable.en
dc.languageenen
dc.publisherEcological Society of Americaen
dc.relation.ispartofEcological Applicationsen
dc.titleFinding needles (or ants) in haystacks: predicting locations of invasive organisms to inform eradication and containmenten
dc.typeJournal Articleen
dc.identifier.doi10.1890/09-0838.1en
dc.subject.keywordsInvasive Species Ecologyen
dc.subject.keywordsProbability Theoryen
local.contributor.firstnameDanielen
local.contributor.firstnameDanielen
local.contributor.firstnameRalphen
local.contributor.firstnameJames Ren
local.contributor.firstnameBarry Wen
local.contributor.firstnameOscar Joseen
local.contributor.firstnameMichaelen
local.subject.for2008050103 Invasive Species Ecologyen
local.subject.for2008010404 Probability Theoryen
local.subject.seo2008960411 Control of Pests, Diseases and Exotic Species in Urban and Industrial Environmentsen
local.profile.schoolUNE Business Schoolen
local.profile.emailDaniel.Spring@sci.monash.edu.auen
local.profile.emailocacho@une.edu.auen
local.output.categoryC1en
local.record.placeauen
local.record.institutionUniversity of New Englanden
local.identifier.epublicationsrecordune-20100414-110839en
local.publisher.placeWashington, United States of Americaen
local.format.startpage1217en
local.format.endpage1227en
local.peerreviewedYesen
local.identifier.volume20en
local.identifier.issue5en
local.title.subtitlepredicting locations of invasive organisms to inform eradication and containmenten
local.contributor.lastnameSchmidten
local.contributor.lastnameSpringen
local.contributor.lastnameMacNallyen
local.contributor.lastnameThomsonen
local.contributor.lastnameBrooken
local.contributor.lastnameCachoen
local.contributor.lastnameMcKenzieen
dc.identifier.staffune-id:ocachoen
local.profile.orcid0000-0002-1542-4442en
local.profile.roleauthoren
local.profile.roleauthoren
local.profile.roleauthoren
local.profile.roleauthoren
local.profile.roleauthoren
local.profile.roleauthoren
local.profile.roleauthoren
local.identifier.unepublicationidune:6477en
local.identifier.handlehttps://hdl.handle.net/1959.11/6319en
dc.identifier.academiclevelAcademicen
local.title.maintitleFinding needles (or ants) in haystacksen
local.output.categorydescriptionC1 Refereed Article in a Scholarly Journalen
local.description.statisticsepubsVisitors: 1121<br />Views: 1174<br />Downloads: 0en
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