Accuracy or confidence? Analyzing the impact of online misinformation on Filipino youth voting likelihood

Abstract

<p>How does online misinformation affect citizen’s likelihood to vote? The risk of fake news on social media does not only lie in the false narratives spread by manipulated content but also in the misplaced confidence cultivated by the way fake news is consumed. Both should be considered when evaluating the impact of fake news on political behavior. We examine a non-probability sample comprising 23,996 college students across the Philippines a year before the 2022 national elections to see the individual effects of misinformation susceptibility and confidence on voting. Contrary to previous empirical work, ordered logistic regression analyses reveal that both confidence and information accuracy are crucial predictors in voting likelihood. We also find empirical evidence for dissatisfaction with the President and the third person effect being significant factors in one’s choice to vote.</p>