Dealing with Estranged Political Relationships: A Prerequisite for Sustainable Peace in South Sudan

Abstract

<p>This thesis investigates the role of estranged political relationships among key leaders of the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) in perpetuating violent conflict in south Sudan and identifies potential strategies to constructively address, and ideally overcome, the estrangement. Previous studies suggest that the conflict was a result of one or more factors including competition for natural resources, ethno nationalist divisions, historic intra-SPLM conflicts and the ensuing power struggles. While several studies to date have pointed to distrust, lack of trust-building and failure to address historical conflicts as reasons for the protracted nature of the conflict, they do not specify the matrix of the problem nor how to solve it. This research examines the interconnectedness between longstanding historic conflicts, intense distrust between SLPM leaders and their respective factions, the consequent power struggles and the seemingly habitual recourse to violent conflict. It then explores and evaluates a range of potentially suitable strategies to apply with a view to breaking this destructive cycle of civil war. The thesis systematically categorises the conflict into root causes (primary causes), underlying core problems (secondary causes) and the triggers (tertiary causes) that result in the violent conflict. The research involves the review of secondary literature as well as primary source documents where a thematic analysis of data is used to identify recurring patterns in the causes of the conflict. In an explanatory case study, twenty-nine participants were selected and interviewed from the categories of: parties to the conflict; the mediation team; eminent persons; scholars; and civil society organisation leaders. The transcribed interview data was uploaded to Nvivo computer analysis software and a three-stage coding analysis including, data cleaning, structural coding and synthesis into the dominant themes, was applied. An analysis of the data revealed six major themes: historical conflicts, estranged political relationships, power struggles, control of resources, ethnic violence and the mixed role of regional and international partners. The thesis shows that power struggles leading to the violent conflicts in South Sudan were manipulated by estranged leaders whose rivalry has its roots in historical conflicts. Following this political sequence, there was ethnic violence involving the political elite and ethnic groups from both sides, and deep-rooted distrust among the political elite that makes trust-building necessary. Additionally, regional and international mediation partners were found to be culpable in contributing to the protraction of the conflict. The thesis lays out a trust-building process and recommends a hybrid transitional justice approach to the conflict.</p>