Bayes inference about productivity in the presence of structural change

Abstract

This study highlights the usefulness, versatility and general dexterity of an extremely robust methodology for assessing structural change in agriculture. The methodology is the multiple change point model estimator developed by Chib (1998). Despite its appeal it has, until now, remained hitherto unexploited in agricultural economics. We modify slightly the seminal prototype in Chib (1998) to embrace a rich set of rotating panel observations on agricultural cereals enterprises as assessed previously by Hadley (2006); 'Journal of Agricultural Economics' 57:81-100. We find evidence that multiple structural change occurred throughout the consecutive sample periods 1983:1986, 1989:1997, and 2000:2002.