Facilitating climate change adaptation and engagement by understanding risks and climate behaviours: An assessment of future sea-level rise risks and climate change community perceptions in Fiji

Abstract

This PhD project aims to extend climate change adaptation research by understanding the physical exposure of a place and the perceptions of the people occupying that space. There is scientific consensus that climate change will amplify existing environmental risks and have unequal impacts on human societies worldwide. The people living in small island developing states (SIDS) are at the frontline of the impacts of climate change due to high levels of exposure and low adaptive capacity. Using data from recent fieldwork, this study assesses the exposure and perceptions of people living in Labasa (a coastal-deltaic rural-urban area developed on a flood plain) in northern Fiji in the South Pacific. Even though risks associated with future sea level rise (SLR) are generally recognised for coastal areas, risks specific to certain landforms, such as river deltas, are understudied. This study provides an assessment of future risks from global SLR and storm surges under SLR in the Labasa Delta. The inundation maps produced through the risk assessment show that both the natural (vegetation and hydrological network) and the built (roads, communities, and infrastructure) environments in the river delta are at inundation risk from future SLR. Despite growing behavioural and attitudinal data on climate change in developed countries, little is known about the determinants of climate behaviours in developing countries. The second main aim of the current study is to provide the first set of representative psychological and behavioural data for the Pacific Islands region with tested hypothesised relationships. To this end, a survey of climate change perceptions amongst a national representative Fijian sample (N = 420), derived through random sampling was conducted throughout the study area. The survey collected both demographic (age, gender, education, employment, and land tenure) and psychological (knowledge, information, risk perception, self-efficacy) data, and investigated the relationship between these variables and climate change adaptation behavioural intentions. As hypothesised, multiple regression analyses identified affective associations, psychological proximity, flood experience, risk perceptions, and self-efficacy as determinants of pro-climate behaviours in Fiji. The results also found a greater engagement with climate change amongst racial majorities (iTaukei), males, and educated people. The findings did not support the hypothesis that increasing objective knowledge, belief, and trust in information sources determines climate behaviours. Although relationships existed between objective knowledge, belief, trust, and the behavioural intention variables, these came out as non-significant predictors. Overall, these results contribute to global research on climate change adaptation. By examining two important aspects - the likely inundation in the Labasa delta because of sea level rise and the perceptions of people in the Labasa area of climate change, the project fills a significant recognised research gap on islands. Previous climate change studies on islands have neither focused on local impacts in peripheral locations, nor looked at people's perceptions in such vulnerable places. The results of this research project provide a baseline of perceptions and vulnerabilities for islands that can aid in the design of future adaptation and risk communication strategies for vulnerable communities in Fiji and the wider Asia-Pacific region. It is expected that the results will offer stakeholders evidence-based advice and important insights on how to make climate change adaptation efforts more sustainable and community-inclusive than current practice.