Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/1959.11/21927
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dc.contributor.authorRamirez Cabral, Nadiezhda Yakovleva Zitzen
dc.contributor.authorKumar, Laliten
dc.contributor.authorShabani, Farzinen
dc.date.accessioned2017-09-27T16:16:00Z-
dc.date.issued2017-
dc.identifier.citationThe Journal of Agricultural Science, 155(8), p. 1219-1238en
dc.identifier.issn1469-5146en
dc.identifier.issn0021-8596en
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/1959.11/21927-
dc.description.abstract'Spodoptera frugiperda', or the fall armyworm (FAW) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae), is an endemic and important agricultural pest in America. Several outbreaks have occurred with losses estimated at millions of dollars. Insects are affected by climate factors, and climate change may affect geographical range, growth rate, abundance, survival, mortality, number of generations per year and other characteristics. These effects are difficult to project due to the complex interactions among insects, hosts and predators. The aim of the current research is to project the impact of climate change on future suitability for the expansion and final range of FAW as well as highlight the risk of damage due to the pest under current and future conditions. The modelling was carried out using two general circulation models (GCMs), CSIRO Mk3.0 and MIROC-H, for 2050 and 2100 under the A2 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), using the known distribution of the species and the CliMond meteorological database. The possible number of generations was estimated to exceed five in the south-eastern USA by 2100. A unique modelling approach linking environmental suitability and number of generations was developed to project the risks of FAW damage. The results show changes in suitability and risk across America, with an increase in the northern hemisphere and decreases or extinction in the southern hemisphere, except for southern Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay and northern Argentina, which indicate high future levels of risk. The current study highlights the possible extinction of a tropical pest in areas near the Equator. The two GCMs both projected increases in the low-risk category of 40% by 2050 and 23% by 2100, with the medium- and high-risk categories decreasing by >50% by 2050 and >39% by 2100, compared with the current risk. In general, agricultural pest management may become more challenging under future climate change and variation, and thus, understanding and quantifying the possible impacts of FAW under future climate conditions is essential for the future economic production of crops.en
dc.languageenen
dc.publisherCambridge University Pressen
dc.relation.ispartofThe Journal of Agricultural Scienceen
dc.titleFuture climate scenarios project a decrease in the risk of fall armyworm outbreaksen
dc.typeJournal Articleen
dc.identifier.doi10.1017/s0021859617000314en
dc.subject.keywordsEcological Impacts of Climate Changeen
dc.subject.keywordsGeospatial Information Systemsen
dc.subject.keywordsNatural Resource Managementen
local.contributor.firstnameNadiezhda Yakovleva Zitzen
local.contributor.firstnameLaliten
local.contributor.firstnameFarzinen
local.subject.for2008050101 Ecological Impacts of Climate Changeen
local.subject.for2008050209 Natural Resource Managementen
local.subject.for2008090903 Geospatial Information Systemsen
local.subject.seo2008960310 Global Effects of Climate Change and Variability (excl. Australia, New Zealand, Antarctica and the South Pacific) (excl. Social Impacts)en
local.subject.seo2008960305 Ecosystem Adaptation to Climate Changeen
local.profile.schoolSchool of Environmental and Rural Scienceen
local.profile.schoolSchool of Environmental and Rural Scienceen
local.profile.emailnramirez@myune.edu.auen
local.profile.emaillkumar@une.edu.auen
local.profile.emailfshaban2@une.edu.auen
local.output.categoryC1en
local.record.placeauen
local.record.institutionUniversity of New Englanden
local.identifier.epublicationsrecordune-chute-20170607-103239en
local.publisher.placeUnited Kingdomen
local.format.startpage1219en
local.format.endpage1238en
local.identifier.scopusid85019578810en
local.peerreviewedYesen
local.identifier.volume155en
local.identifier.issue8en
local.contributor.lastnameRamirez Cabralen
local.contributor.lastnameKumaren
local.contributor.lastnameShabanien
dc.identifier.staffune-id:nramirezen
dc.identifier.staffune-id:lkumaren
dc.identifier.staffune-id:fshaban2en
local.profile.orcid0000-0002-9205-756Xen
local.profile.roleauthoren
local.profile.roleauthoren
local.profile.roleauthoren
local.identifier.unepublicationidune:22117en
local.identifier.handlehttps://hdl.handle.net/1959.11/21927en
dc.identifier.academiclevelAcademicen
dc.identifier.academiclevelAcademicen
dc.identifier.academiclevelAcademicen
local.title.maintitleFuture climate scenarios project a decrease in the risk of fall armyworm outbreaksen
local.output.categorydescriptionC1 Refereed Article in a Scholarly Journalen
local.search.authorRamirez Cabral, Nadiezhda Yakovleva Zitzen
local.search.authorKumar, Laliten
local.search.authorShabani, Farzinen
local.uneassociationUnknownen
local.year.published2017en
local.fileurl.closedpublishedhttps://rune.une.edu.au/web/retrieve/54a1b670-483f-4e79-a10f-e1a3d0162c74en
local.subject.for2020410102 Ecological impacts of climate change and ecological adaptationen
local.subject.for2020410406 Natural resource managementen
local.subject.for2020401302 Geospatial information systems and geospatial data modellingen
local.subject.seo2020190507 Global effects of climate change (excl. Australia, New Zealand, Antarctica and the South Pacific) (excl. social impacts)en
local.subject.seo2020190102 Ecosystem adaptation to climate changeen
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