Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/1959.11/15642
Title: Climate change and the potential global distribution of 'Aedes aegypti': spatial modelling using geographical information system and CLIMEX
Contributor(s): Khormi, Hassan  (author); Kumar, Lalit  (author)orcid 
Publication Date: 2014
Open Access: Yes
DOI: 10.4081/gh.2014.29Open Access Link
Handle Link: https://hdl.handle.net/1959.11/15642
Abstract: We examined the potential added risk posed by global climate change on the dengue vector Aedes aegypti abundance using CLIMEX, a powerful tool for exploring the relationship between the fundamental and realised niche of any species. After calibrating the model using data from several knowledge domains, including geographical distribution records, we estimated potential distributions of the mosquito under current and future potential scenarios. The impact of climate change on its potential distribution was assessed with two global climate models, the CSIRO-Mk3.0 and the MIROC-H, run with two potential, future emission scenarios (A1B and A2) published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We compared today's climate situation with two arbitrarily chosen future time points (2030 and 2070) to see the impact on the worldwide distribution of 'A. aegypti'. The model for the current global climate indicated favourable areas for the mosquito within its known distribution in tropical and subtropical areas. However, even if much of the tropics and subtropics will continue to be suitable, the climatically favourable areas for 'A. aegypti' globally are projected to contract under the future scenarios produced by these models, while currently unfavourable areas, such as inland Australia, the Arabian Peninsula, southern Iran and some parts of North America may become climatically favourable for this mosquito species. The climate models for the Aedes dengue vector presented here should be useful for management purposes as they can be adapted for decision/making regarding allocation of resources for dengue risk toward areas where risk infection remains and away from areas where climatic suitability is likely to decrease in the future.
Publication Type: Journal Article
Source of Publication: Geospatial Health, 8(2), p. 405-415
Publisher: Universita degli Studi di Napoli
Place of Publication: Italy
ISSN: 1827-1987
1970-7096
Field of Research (FOR): 090903 Geospatial Information Systems
050101 Ecological Impacts of Climate Change
050206 Environmental Monitoring
Socio-Economic Outcome Codes: 960411 Control of Pests, Diseases and Exotic Species in Urban and Industrial Environments
960303 Climate Change Models
960405 Control of Pests, Diseases and Exotic Species at Regional or Larger Scales
Peer Reviewed: Yes
HERDC Category Description: C1 Refereed Article in a Scholarly Journal
Other Links: http://www.geospatialhealth.unina.it/summary.php?ida=261
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