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Title: Estimating the duration and cost of weed eradication programmes
Contributor(s): Panetta, FD (author); Cacho, Oscar Jose  (author)orcid ; Hester, Susan  (author); Sims-Chilton, NM (author)
Publication Date: 2011
Abstract: Two prerequisites for realistically embarking upon an eradication programme are that cost-benefit analysis favours this strategy over other management options and that sufficient resources are available to carry the programme through to completion. These are not independent criteria, but it is our view that too little attention has been paid to estimating the investment required to complete weed eradication programmes. We deal with this problem by using a two-pronged approach: 1) developing a stochastic dynamic model that provides an estimation of programme duration; and 2) estimating the inputs required to delimit a weed incursion and to prevent weed reproduction over a sufficiently long period to allow extirpation of all infestations. The model is built upon relationships that capture the time-related detection of new infested areas, rates of progression of infestations from the active to the monitoring stage, rates of reversion of infestations from the monitoring to active stage, and the frequency distribution of time since last detection for all infestations. This approach is applied to the branched broomrape ('Orobanche ramosa') eradication programme currently underway in South Australia. This programme commenced in 1999 and currently 7450 ha are known to be infested with the weed. To date none of the infestations have been eradicated. Given recent (2008) levels of investment and current eradication methods, model predictions are that it would take, on average, an additional 73 years to eradicate this weed at an average additional cost (NPV) of $AU67.9m. When the model was run for circumstances in 2003 and 2006, the average programme duration and total cost (NPV) were predicted to be 159 and 94 years, and $AU91.3m and $AU72.3m, respectively. The reduction in estimated programme length and cost may represent progress towards the eradication objective, although eradication of this species still remains a long term prospect.
Publication Type: Conference Publication
Conference Name: International Conference on Island Invasives: Eradication and Management, Auckland, New Zealand, 8th - 12th February, 2010
Conference Details: International Conference on Island Invasives: Eradication and Management, Auckland, New Zealand, 8th - 12th February, 2010
Source of Publication: Island Invasives: Eradication and Management. Proceedings of the International Conference on Island Invasives, p. 472-476
Publisher: International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources (IUCN) and The Centre for Biodiversity and Biosecurity (CBB)
Place of Publication: Auckland, New Zealand
Field of Research (FOR): 140205 Environment and Resource Economics
Peer Reviewed: Yes
HERDC Category Description: E1 Refereed Scholarly Conference Publication
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Series Name: Occasional Paper of the IUCN Species Survival Commission
Series Number : 42
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