The potential for predicting Australian wool supply using remotely sensed data

Abstract

This paper examines the potential of using remote sensing data to make forecasts of Australian wool production more reliable. At present AWI's Production Forecasting Committee relies heavily on expert opinion and consensus. A model of the Australian flock at a regional scale is critical to enable reliable forecasts. Given technological advances and proven applications like the CSIRO's Pasture from Space program, remote sensing has considerable potential to reduce uncertainty in production forecasting. It can be used to differentiate regions on the basis of the predicted quantity and quality of pasture available for sheep grazing throughout the year. Integrating estimated pasture productivity, flock size and flock structure into a simple simulation model should provide an improved and more precise forecast of wool production across the Australian continent.