'Sea Change' and Landscape Change: A spatial examination of trend and alternative landscape futures for the Northern Rivers Region of New South Wales, Australia

Abstract

Past policies and landscape changes influence future directions. Human society tooled with powerful machines since the industrial revolution have become the major altering force on landscapes and regions. The affluence of some recent generations in developed countries adds further social expectations for change, particularly urban development in naturally aesthetic places. Internal migration to a comfortable beach side lifestyle or "hobby farm" puts enormous pressure on local government to make land available and provide services to meet these expectations. Pro-development policies and planning has therefore created landscape changes that include the loss of agricultural land, vegetation communities, and an increased demand on ecosystem services. Rapid large scale change is affecting many rural coastal regions of Australia. Faced with enormous "Sea Change" migration induced development, urbanisation and consequent land use, many of these regions are heading towards landscapes of 'concrete jungles', less productive land and degraded ecosystems. The enormous challenge is how to balance these social drivers with ecological sustainability and agricultural production needs in the long term. Are we stuck, with no escape, on an out of control railway train heading straight for the concrete jungle, reduced resilience and future collapse (Diamond 2005)? Perhaps however, there are other directions. Are there other visions or designs of alternative futures that are plausible to implement and provide for more adaptive sustainable pathways?