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Title: Sources of uncertainty for wheat yield projections under future climate are site-specific
Contributor(s): Wang, Bin (author); Feng, Puyu (author); Liu, De Li  (author); O'Leary, Garry J (author); Macadam, Ian (author); Waters, Cathy (author); Asseng, Senthold (author); Cowie, Annette  (author); Jiang, Tengcong (author); Xiao, Dengpan (author); Ruan, Hongyan (author); He, Jianqiang (author); Yu, Qiang (author)
Publication Date: 2020
DOI: 10.1038/s43016-020-00181-w
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Understanding sources of uncertainty in climate–crop modelling is critical for informing adaptation strategies for cropping systems. An understanding of the major sources of uncertainty in yield change is needed to develop strategies to reduce the total uncertainty. Here, we simulated rain-fed wheat cropping at four representative locations in China and Australia using eight crop models, 32 global climate models (GCMs) and two climate downscaling methods, to investigate sources of uncertainty in yield response to climate change. We partitioned the total uncertainty into sources caused by GCMs, crop models, climate scenarios and the interactions between these three. Generally, the contributions to uncertainty were broadly similar in the two downscaling methods. The dominant source of uncertainty is GCMs in Australia, whereas in China it is crop models. This difference is largely due to uncertainty in GCM-projected future rainfall change across locations. Our findings highlight the site-specific sources of uncertainty, which should be one step towards understanding uncertainties for more robust climate–crop modelling.

Publication Type: Journal Article
Source of Publication: Nature Food, 1(11), p. 720-728
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
Place of Publication: United Kingdom
ISSN: 2662-1355
Fields of Research (FoR) 2020: 4101 Climate change impacts and adaptation
Socio-Economic Objective (SEO) 2020: tbd
Peer Reviewed: Yes
HERDC Category Description: C1 Refereed Article in a Scholarly Journal
Appears in Collections:Journal Article
School of Environmental and Rural Science

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