Fire danger assessment using geospatial modelling in Mekong delta, Vietnam: Effects on wetland resources

Abstract

<p>The Mekong Delta (MD), Vietnam is a large tropical wetland important for commodity provision, water balance regulation, and biodiversity conservation. However, the delta is under severe fire risk due to prolonged drought and rising temperatures largely emanating from climatic change. Our study applied MODIS Terra land surface reflectance (MOD09A1), MODIS Terra land surface temperature (MOD11A2), and ASTER digital elevation model (DEM) to develop fire danger models to assess spatial patterns in fire danger in the MD. Four variables: Potential Surface Temperature (PST), Modified Normalized Difference Fire Index (MNDFI), Perpendicular Moisture Index (PMI) and Normalized Multiband Drought Index (NMDI), were extracted from the satellite products to develop the models using Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) and weighted overlay methods to generate fire danger maps during the 2019 fire season. The models were validated using MODIS Terra and Aqua thermal anomaly product (MOD14), with overall accuracy of 84.13%. The result demonstrated that the model accurately estimates fire risk over the MD. The study also found that forests, especially Melaleuca wetland forests in U Minh wetlands, and agricultural land were under severe fire risk. The implication is that measures such as proper management of forests and agricultural activities for mitigating forest fires and integrated fire and water strategies for either fire risk mitigation or biodiversity conservation are necessary for sustainable management of the MD wetland.</p>