An Exploration of the Relationship Between Counterfactual Thinking and Depression in The Philippines

Abstract

<p>Counterfactual thinking involves imagining past events differently from what actually happened (Roese, 1997). Generating thoughts about how negative events could have been avoided or handled better are referred to as<i>upward counterfactual thinking</i> (Roese & Epstude, 2017; Summerville & Roese, 2008). According to the functional theory of counterfactual thinking (Roese, 1994), upward counterfactual thoughts provide us with ideas about how to respond appropriately if a similar situation happens in the future (Epstude & Roese, 2008; Roese, 1994; Roese & Epstude, 2017). For example, people may become motivated to work on their unfulfilled ambitions after realising that a better version of themselves could have been attained (Landman et al., 1995). Nevertheless, the theory also posits that upward counterfactual thinking may become dysfunctional by increasing depression risk. This research comprised four studies that addressed the validity and viability of this proposition.</p> <p>Divergent findings about the nature of the association between upward counterfactual thinking and depression indicated a need to consolidate these results. Therefore, a meta-analysis was conducted (Study 1) to determine the strength of the association between upward counterfactual thinking and depression (Broomhall et al., 2017). Based on 42 effect sizes obtained from a pooled sample of 13,168 respondents, upward counterfactual thinking was positively associated with depression symptoms (<i>r</i> = .26), which indicated that upward counterfactual thinking is reliably associated with depression.</p> <p>Important gaps in the literature were identified by the meta-analysis and its moderator analyses. One of which is the lack of studies conducted about the association between upward counterfactual thinking and depression in Asian samples. Accordingly, this was addressed by conducting three studies on Philippine residents.</p> <p>In Study 2, we investigated the association between self-referent upward counterfactuals (i.e., self-blaming upward counterfactuals) and depression, with regret as a mediator (Broomhall & Phillips, 2018). This cross-sectional and correlational study was conducted on 147 universityeducated residents of the Philippines via an online survey. Mediation analysis showed that frequent self-referent upward counterfactual thinking was associated with greater regret which, in turn, was associated with greater depression symptoms. An additional finding was a significant positive association between other-referent upward counterfactuals (i.e., upward counterfactuals that externalise blame) and depression. </p> <p>A more recent conceptualization of the functional theory posits that other-referent upward counterfactuals could regulate negative emotions given their blame-shifting characteristic (Roese & Epstude, 2017). Given the unexpected positive association found in Study 2, a replication study (Study 3) was conducted on 598 university-educated Philippine residents (Broomhall & Phillips, 2020). Adherence to collective harmony norms was investigated as a moderator to determine whether the restrictions they impose may compromise individuals’ personal desires, thereby increasing helplessness that is a known predictor of depression (Seligman, 1975). As predicted, other-referent upward counterfactual thinking was positively associated with depression. Contrary to prediction, a significant interaction indicated that other-referent<i>upward counterfactual thinking</i> was only positively associated with depression among individuals who adhere to low or moderate harmony maintenance norms, and that individuals with high harmony reported the highest levels of depression irrespective of their tendencies to generate other-referent upward counterfactuals.</p> <p>Finally, Study 4 utilised an experimental approach to examine whether upward counterfactual thinking (self, other, and non-referent) may causally increase depression symptoms. The sample comprised 537 general Philippine residents to expand the investigation to the Philippine community. As hypothesised, individuals who generated upward counterfactual thoughts in relation to a negative life event subsequently reported higher state depression than those in a neutral control condition. Moderation analyses found that individuals in the upward counterfactual condition reported higher state depression when perceived control of the past negative event was low or moderate, but not when past control was high; supporting a helplessness account of depression (Abramson et al., 1978; Seligman, 1975). Questions that were articulated in Study 1 were also addressed in this study. Opportunity to change the negative outcome in the future predicted lower state depression, but its interactions with group condition and past control were not significant. A mediation analysis also replicated Study 2’s finding with an experimental design. As hypothesised, regret fully mediated the causal influence of selfreferent upward counterfactuals on increased state depression. However, regret type (i.e., action vs. inaction regrets) did not determine when self-referent upward counterfactuals may indirectly increase state depression via regret.</p>