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A preliminary model for Marek's disease (MD) transmission among broiler chickens in one shed is presented. The model is based upon estimated correlation between the main contributing host-pathogen-environment factors influencing the transmission of MD in broiler chickens. The model requires parameter estimates for all main contributing factors to MD such as challenge level, population density, host vaccinal immunity, etc., and provides a clear explanation of how the contributing factors act to influence MD infection rate. The model is only a conceptual framework at this stage but initial simulations point to its utility. The applied example presented shows that this model makes biological common sense. The estimation of all parameters and validation of modelled relationships need to be confirmed in the field and under experimental conditions. |
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