Development of indicators of economic resilience in Australia's regions: An application to rural NSW

Abstract

Advancement of Australia's regions is an important policy objective at both Federal and State level. Historically, work (employment) is unevenly spatially distributed within Australia. Accounts of regions' resources and capacities are important information for investors from both public and private sectors. For primary industries, creation of employmentand retention of value added in the regions is seen by many as vital to rural and regional communities. For rural and urban planners, product flows to distant consumer markets call for public and private investment in infrastructure, and similar arguments address regionally-based export industries. This study applies a methodology used in the United Kingdom to available data series for regions of NSW. Indicators based on labour market dynamics are employed to map the resilience of the State's regions. Cyclic patterns emerge, which interact in a number of ways between and within the regions studied. Exogenous data is used to explain the periodicity and amplitude of fluctuations, and the spatial pattern of linkages between regions. Extensions of the method are discussed with regard to industry-specific impacts of change, particularly in agriculture, agribusiness and mining; and applications using alternative data sources