Geospatial modelling of the inundation levels in the Sundarbans mangrove forests due to the impact of sea level rise and identification of affected species and regions

Abstract

This research reveals the magnitude of mangrove area loss and future impacts on mangrove species composition and distribution due to rise in Mean Sea Level (MSL). In this study, a geospatial model of potentially inundated areas was developed using Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data to assess the potential impacts of sea level rise (SLR) on the spatial distribution of mangrove species and estimate the potential inundation and subsequent mangrove area loss. The mangrove areas of 2646 ha, 9599 ha and 74,720 ha are projected to be inundated and subsequently lost by the end of the twenty first century for the low, medium and high SLR scenarios respectively under the net subsidence rate −2.4 mm/year relative to the baseline year 2000. All the major five mangrove species of the Bangladesh Sundarbans will be affected and this can potentially contribute to a change in the present species composition and biodiversity of the forest. Results suggest that, under the extreme scenario, inundation and subsequent loss of different mangrove species will be substantial and this can bring a massive change in the species composition and their spatial distribution in the Bangladesh Sundarbans.