Prediction of Bhutan's ecological distribution of rice (Oryza sativa L.) under the impact of climate change through maximum entropy modelling

Abstract

The current research investigated the present and future projected distribution of rice (<i>Oryza sativa</i> L.) based on climatic suitability under three representative concentration pathways (RCPs) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modelling. The MaxEnt models predict that rice distribution in Bhutan will undergo major changes in terms of spatial range shift of varying magnitudes by 2060. Under the anthropogenic radiative forcing of RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, ecological space of rice is predicted to change between 1 and 43%. Major changes are likely to take place in major rice-growing ecological zones of the country. This is likely to have a negative impact on the livelihood and food security of the people as crop production might start declining due to unfavourable climatic factors. Therefore, the findings of this study could prove beneficial for forecasting focus sites requiring interventions, including future climate research, planning, policy formulation and conservation of natural resources.