Risk of spread of tomato yellow leaf curl virus (TYLCV) in tomato crops under various climate change scenarios

Abstract

Species distribution models (SDMs) are valuable for the information they provide to reduce the potential negative effects of climatic factors on agricultural production systems. Such information may be used to prevent the entry and spread of invasive species in new areas, as well as to monitor regions with current occurrence. This is the first study of Tomato yellow leaf curl virus (<i>TYLCV</i>) global distribution, focusing on the risk of this disease in areas projected to be suitable for open field tomato (<i>Solanum lycopersicum</i>) and for whitefly (<i>Bemisia tabaci</i> - biotypes B and Q). <i>TYLCV</i> (Begomovirus) is an important virus transmitted by <i>B. tabaci</i> and poses a risk to <i>S. lycopersicum</i> cultivation worldwide. Despite the importance of <i>TYLCV</i>, the potential impact of climate change on the global distribution of <i>TYLCV</i> in agricultural crops remains unstudied. The aim of this study was to identify the invasion risk levels for <i>TYLCV</i> in areas optimally conducive for open field tomato cultivation and suitable for <i>B. tabaci</i> (biotypes B and Q) under projected climate changes for the years 2050 and 2070 using MaxEnt and the Global Climate Model (HadGEM2_ES, MIROC5 and CCSM4) under four scenarios (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5). Our results show that large regions are projected to be suitable for <i>TYLCV</i> in areas of suitability for <i>B. tabaci</i> and optimal for open field tomato cultivation. In the predictions, most areas with optimal conditions for <i>S. lycopersicum</i> and suitable for <i>B. tabaci</i> will be under medium suitability for <i>TYLCV</i> under climate change scenarios. This research may be useful to design strategies to prevent the introduction and establishment of <i>TYLCV</i> where the occurrence has not yet been reported.