Modelling Impacts of Climate Change on Maize (Zea mays L.) Growth and Productivity: A Review of Models, Outputs and Limitations

Title
Modelling Impacts of Climate Change on Maize (Zea mays L.) Growth and Productivity: A Review of Models, Outputs and Limitations
Publication Date
2019-08-13
Author(s)
Kogo, Benjamin Kipkemboi
Kumar, Lalit
( author )
OrcID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9205-756X
Email: lkumar@une.edu.au
UNE Id une-id:lkumar
Koech, Richard
Langat, Philip
Type of document
Journal Article
Language
en
Entity Type
Publication
Publisher
Scientific Research Publishing, Inc
Place of publication
United States of America
DOI
10.4236/gep.2019.78006
UNE publication id
une:1959.11/29912
Abstract
The use of crop modelling in various cropping systems and environments to project and upscale agronomic decision-making under the facets of climate change has gained currency in recent years. This paper provides an evaluation of crop models that have been used by researchers to simulate maize growth and productivity. Through a systematic review approach, a comprehensive assessment of 186 published articles was carried out to establish the models and parameterization features, simulated impacts on maize yields and adaptation strategies in the last three decades. Of the 23 models identified, CERES-maize and APSIM models were the most dominant, representing 49.7% of the studies undertaken between 1990 and 2018. Current research shows projected decline in maize yields of between 8% - 38% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios by the end of the 21st century, and that adaptation is essential in alleviating the impacts of climate change. Major agro-adaptation options considered in most papers are changes in planting dates, cultivars and crop water management practices. The use of multiple crop models and multi-model ensembles from general circulation models (GCMs) is recommended. As interest in crop modelling grows, future work should focus more on suitability of agricultural lands for maize production under climate scenarios.
Link
Citation
Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection, 7(8), p. 76-95
ISSN
2327-4344
2327-4336
Start page
76
End page
95
Rights
Attribution 4.0 International

Files:

NameSizeformatDescriptionLink