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Title: Modeling reservoir management for malaria control in Ethiopia
Contributor(s): Kibret, Solomon (author); Ryder, Darren  (author); Wilson, G Glenn (author); Kumar, Lalit  (author)orcid 
Publication Date: 2019-12-02
Open Access: Yes
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-019-54536-w
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Abstract: This study investigated how changes in reservoir water level affect mosquito abundance and malaria transmission in Ethiopia. Digital elevation models of three Ethiopian dams at lowland, midland and highland elevations were used to quantify water surface area and wetted shoreline at different reservoir water levels (70, 75, 80, 85, 90, 95 and 100% full capacity) to estimate surface area of potential mosquito breeding habitat. Reservoir water level drawdown rates of 10, 15 and 20 were applied as scenarios to model larval abundance, entomological inoculation rate (EIR) and malaria prevalence at each dam. Malaria treatment cost and economic cost in terms of lost working days were calculated for each water level scenario and dam. At the lowland dam, increased larval abundances were associated with increasing reservoir water level and wetted shoreline area. In contrast, both larval abundances and area of wetted shoreline declined with increasing reservoir water level at the midland and highland dams. Estimated EIR, malaria prevalence, malaria treatment cost and economic cost generally decreased when the water level drawdown rate increased from 10 to 15 and 20 irrespective of reservoir water level. Given the expansion of dam construction in sub-Saharan Africa, incorporating malaria control measures such as manipulating drawdown rates into reservoir management has the potential to reduce the malaria burden and health care costs in communities near reservoirs.
Publication Type: Journal Article
Source of Publication: Scientific Reports, v.9, p. 1-11
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
Place of Publication: United Kingdom
ISSN: 2045-2322
Fields of Research (FoR) 2008: 090903 Geospatial Information Systems
090702 Environmental Engineering Modelling
Fields of Research (FoR) 2020: 401302 Geospatial information systems and geospatial data modelling
401102 Environmentally sustainable engineering
401103 Global and planetary environmental engineering
Socio-Economic Objective (SEO) 2008: 960302 Climate Change Mitigation Strategies
960311 Social Impacts of Climate Change and Variability
Socio-Economic Objective (SEO) 2020: 190301 Climate change mitigation strategies
190103 Social impacts of climate change and variability
Peer Reviewed: Yes
HERDC Category Description: C1 Refereed Article in a Scholarly Journal
Appears in Collections:Journal Article
School of Environmental and Rural Science

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