Rainfall Trends, Drought Frequency and La Nina in Tuvalu: A Small Equatorial Island State in the Pacific Ocean

Abstract

Droughts, as complex climatic hazards, can threaten livelihoods, economies, and ecosystems in low-lying island states. In extreme cases, drought may cripple national development in these countries, and produce long-term impacts that hinder national efforts to achieve the United Nations’ sustainable development goals. This study addresses rainfall trends, the frequency of droughts, La Niña influences and the relationship between rainfall and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the small Pacific country of Tuvalu. The study follows this order of approach: (1) examine observed rainfall time series for four meteorological stations across Tuvalu; (2) decompose observed rainfall time series and develop detrended rainfall time series; (3) evaluate and identify rainfall trends, including drought frequency; (4) define drought in Tuvalu using box plots; (5) evaluate the seasonal cycle of rainfall; (6) identify La Niña years and (7) test the correlation between SST, an indicator of La Niña events, and rainfall. The findings of this study revealed that (1) de-trended rainfall time series show declining trends in all four rainfall stations over the period 1953-2012; (2) the frequency of drought ranges from three to fourteen years with a mean of nine years; (3) the occurrence of drought appears to follow the La Niña years; (4) boxplots provide an effective option for defining drought and, finally, (5) there is empirical support for a moderate to strong correlation between the de-trended values of SST and rainfall in the area of study.