The Decimation: Not yet the Implosion

Abstract

In the chapter I wrote for the book, The University of the Future (Donleavy, 2019), I predicted that by 2030 the university sector would implode. That would be because demand for university places had reduced far below supply. With 2020's Covid-19 keeping so many people locked down at home for the whole of semester one, overseas students were not able to study face to face. Universities faced a financial crisis in proportion to their reliance on overseas student fee income. It is still too early to see a clear or comprehensive picture of Covid-19 effects on universities. This paper assembles some important early effects and early responses. The verdict is that the crisis will shrink the sector but not kill it.