The future protein decade: perspectives on global pressure to agriculture

Abstract

Most of the world's arable area is sown to either grains or oilseeds, and it is the big movements in the profitability of these crops that determine the pressure on global cropping-area supply. This perspective incorporates publicly available data, primarily from the FAO, to demonstrate some of the shifting pressures on global agriculture. Additionally, it argues that the advent of biofuel policies created additional demand for the area to produce cereal and oil crops from 2002. However, with a slowing demand growth for ethanol biofuels, crops for human and animal consumption will once again become the main driver for crop acreage. In particular, protein crops will be favoured as higher incomes are strongly linked to a greater animal-product consumption. In addition, a shift to a more intensive animal production is further increasing the demand for protein crops. Therefore, we could ultimately see a contraction in cereal crops and much faster growth in oilseeds, albeit from a lower base, as the demand for feed becomes the main driver for global agriculture. Yet, this is occurring during a time in which protein content of the major oil crops has been declining (albeit while yields continue to increase).