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Title: Modelling the potential effects of climate factors on Dubas bug (Ommatissus lybicus) presence/absence and its infestation rate: A case study from Oman
Contributor(s): Al Kindi, Khalifa M (author); Kwan, Paul  (supervisor); Andrew, Nigel R  (supervisor)orcid ; Welch, Mitchell  (supervisor)orcid 
Early Online Version: 2019-03-20
DOI: 10.1002/ps.5420
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Abstract: BACKGROUND: Ommatissus lybicus de Bergevin (Hemiptera: Tropiduchidae) (Dubas Bug, DB) is an insect pest attacking date palms. It occurs in Arab countries including Oman. In this paper, the logistic, ordinary least square, and geographical weighted regressions were applied to model the absence/presence and density of DB against climate factors. A method is proposed for modelling spatially correlated prorations annually over the study period, based on annual and seasonal outbreaks. The historical 2006–2015 climate data were obtained from weather stations located in nine governorates in northern Oman, while dataloggers collected the 2017 microclimate data in eight of these nine governorates. RESULTS: Logistic regression model showed the percentages of correctly predicted values using a cut‐off point of 0.5 were 90%, 88% and 84%, indicating good classification accuracy. OLS and GWR models showed an overall trend of strong linear correlation between DB infestation levels and short‐ and long‐term climate factors. The three models suggested that precipitation, elevation, temperature, humidity, wind direction and wind speed are important in influencing the spatial distribution and the presence/absence of dense DB populations. CONCLUSION: The results provide an improved understanding of climate factors that impact DB's spread and is considered useful for managing DB infestations in date palm plantations.
Publication Type: Journal Article
Source of Publication: Pest Management Science
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Place of Publication: United Kingdom
ISSN: 1526-498X
Field of Research (FOR): 050103 Invasive Species Ecology
070603 Horticultural Crop Protection (Pests, Diseases and Weeds)
090903 Geospatial Information Systems
Socio-Economic Outcome Codes: 820299 Horticultural Crops not elsewhere classified
960405 Control of Pests, Diseases and Exotic Species at Regional or Larger Scales
970105 Expanding Knowledge in the Environmental Sciences
Peer Reviewed: Yes
HERDC Category Description: C1 Refereed Article in a Scholarly Journal
Appears in Collections:Journal Article
School of Environmental and Rural Science
School of Science and Technology

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