Future climate and habitat distribution of Himalayan Musk Deer (Moschus chrysogaster)

Abstract

Change in future climate will either expand, contract or shift the climatic niche of many species and this could lead to shifting of their geographical ranges. Species distribution models identify habitat over a specified area that may have similar ecological characteristics of a species in question. We modelled current and future distribution of endangered Himalayan Musk Deer (Moschus chrysogaster), referred here as HMD, in Nepal Himalaya based on two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for the year 2050 and 2070 using MaxEnt and MIROC5 global climate models (GCM). Annual mean temperature, altitude, isothermality and land cover were the major contributing variables to the model with area under ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) curve (AUC) being 0.975. Almost 7.7% (11,342 km2) area of the country is currently suitable for HMD. The model shows that a majority of current suitable habitat will remain stable under both RCPs in the future though 29.47% of the current suitability will be decreased by 2070 under RCP4.5, mostly in the western and far western regions. Overall, the shift of habitat shows a longitudinal pattern. Existing protected areas (PAs) account for 52.6% of the total suitable habitat area, and shows variability of changes in suitability under both RCPs in the future. Initiation of trans-boundary conservation programs could offset the likely climate change impact on HMD habitat in Nepal and adjoining native Himalayan ranges.