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https://hdl.handle.net/1959.11/23074
Title: | Future climate and habitat distribution of Himalayan Musk Deer (Moschus chrysogaster) | Contributor(s): | Lamsal, Pramod (author); Kumar, Lalit (author) ; Aryal, Achyut (author); Atreya, Kishor (author) | Publication Date: | 2018 | DOI: | 10.1016/j.ecoinf.2018.02.004 | Handle Link: | https://hdl.handle.net/1959.11/23074 | Abstract: | Change in future climate will either expand, contract or shift the climatic niche of many species and this could lead to shifting of their geographical ranges. Species distribution models identify habitat over a specified area that may have similar ecological characteristics of a species in question. We modelled current and future distribution of endangered Himalayan Musk Deer (Moschus chrysogaster), referred here as HMD, in Nepal Himalaya based on two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for the year 2050 and 2070 using MaxEnt and MIROC5 global climate models (GCM). Annual mean temperature, altitude, isothermality and land cover were the major contributing variables to the model with area under ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) curve (AUC) being 0.975. Almost 7.7% (11,342 km2) area of the country is currently suitable for HMD. The model shows that a majority of current suitable habitat will remain stable under both RCPs in the future though 29.47% of the current suitability will be decreased by 2070 under RCP4.5, mostly in the western and far western regions. Overall, the shift of habitat shows a longitudinal pattern. Existing protected areas (PAs) account for 52.6% of the total suitable habitat area, and shows variability of changes in suitability under both RCPs in the future. Initiation of trans-boundary conservation programs could offset the likely climate change impact on HMD habitat in Nepal and adjoining native Himalayan ranges. | Publication Type: | Journal Article | Source of Publication: | Ecological Informatics, v.44, p. 101-108 | Publisher: | Elsevier BV | Place of Publication: | Netherlands | ISSN: | 1878-0512 1574-9541 |
Fields of Research (FoR) 2008: | 090702 Environmental Engineering Modelling 090903 Geospatial Information Systems 050101 Ecological Impacts of Climate Change |
Fields of Research (FoR) 2020: | 410102 Ecological impacts of climate change and ecological adaptation 401102 Environmentally sustainable engineering 401302 Geospatial information systems and geospatial data modelling |
Socio-Economic Objective (SEO) 2008: | 960310 Global Effects of Climate Change and Variability (excl. Australia, New Zealand, Antarctica and the South Pacific) (excl. Social Impacts) 960303 Climate Change Models 960305 Ecosystem Adaptation to Climate Change |
Socio-Economic Objective (SEO) 2020: | 190507 Global effects of climate change (excl. Australia, New Zealand, Antarctica and the South Pacific) (excl. social impacts) 190102 Ecosystem adaptation to climate change 190501 Climate change models |
Peer Reviewed: | Yes | HERDC Category Description: | C1 Refereed Article in a Scholarly Journal |
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Appears in Collections: | Journal Article School of Environmental and Rural Science |
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