Mapping Long Term Changes in Mangrove Cover and Predictions of Future Change under Different Climate Change Scenarios in the Sundarbans, Bangladesh

Abstract

Ground-based readings of temperature and rainfall, satellite imagery, aerial photographs, ground verification data and Digital Elevation Model (DEM) were used in this study. Ground-based meteorological information was obtained from Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) for the period 1977 to 2015 and was used to determine the trends of rainfall and temperature in this thesis. Satellite images obtained from the US Geological Survey (USGS) Center for Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) website (www.glovis.usgs.gov) in four time periods were analysed to assess the dynamics of mangrove population at species level. Remote sensing techniques, as a solution to lack of spatial data at a relevant scale and difficulty in accessing the mangroves for field survey and also as an alternative to the traditional methods were used in monitoring of the changes in mangrove species composition, . To identify mangrove forests, a number of satellite sensors have been used, including Landsat TM/ETM/OLI, SPOT, CBERS, SIR, ASTER, and IKONOS and Quick Bird. The use of conventional medium-resolution remote sensor data (e.g., Landsat TM, ASTER, SPOT) in the identification of different mangrove species remains a challenging task. In many developing countries, the high cost of acquiring high- resolution satellite imagery excludes its routine use. The free availability of archived images enables the development of useful techniques in its use and therefor Landsat imagery were used in this study for mangrove species classification. Satellite imagery used in this study includes: Landsat Multispectral Scanner (MSS) of 57 m resolution acquired on 1st February 1977, Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) of 28.5 m resolution acquired on 5th February 1989, Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+) of 28.5 m resolution acquired on 28th February 2000 and Landsat Operational Land Imager (OLI) of 30 m resolution acquired on 4th February 2015. To study tidal channel dynamics of the study area, aerial photographs from 1974 and 2011, and a satellite image from 2017 were used. Satellite images from 1974 with good spatial resolution of the area were not available, and therefore aerial photographs of comparatively high and fine resolution were considered adequate to obtain information on tidal channel dynamics. Although high-resolution satellite imagery was available for 2011, aerial photographs were used for this study due to their effectiveness in terms of cost and also ease of comparison with the 1974 photographs. The aerial photographs were sourced from the Survey of Bangladesh (SOB). The Sentinel-2 satellite image from 2017 was downloaded from the European Space Agency (ESA) website (https://scihub.copernicus.eu/). In this research, elevation data acts as the main parameter in the determination of the sea level rise (SLR) impacts on the spatial distribution of the future mangrove species of the Bangladesh Sundarbans. High resolution elevation data is essential for this kind of research where every centimeter counts due to the low-lying characteristics of the study area. The high resolution (less than 1m vertical error) DEM data used in this study was obtained from Water Resources Planning Organization (WRPO), Bangladesh. The elevation information used to construct the DEM was originally collected by a Finnish consulting firm known as FINNMAP in 1991 for the Bangladesh government.