Predicting the Sprint Performance of Adolescent Track Cyclists Using the 3-Minute All-out Test

Abstract

This study aimed to predict 500-m time trial (TT) and 2,000-m pursuit speed of adolescent cyclists (age range = 13-15 years) using mechanical parameters derived from a critical power (CP) test and anthropometric variables. Ten welltrained competitive cyclists were assessed for body composition, body mass, stature, and frontal surface area (FSA), as well as completing the CP test. The personal best speed (km.h⁻¹) of each rider during competition in 500-m TT and 2,000-m pursuit races was predicted based on the CP test data and anthropometric profiles using multiple regression analysis. A combination of the CP.FSA⁻¹ and internal (predicted) to external work ratio performed by the cyclists (Wint:Wext) predicted 500-m TT speed (R² = 0.97; standard error of the estimate (SEE) = 0.82, P ≤ 0.001), whereas a combination of mean power.FSA⁻1 (mean power) and body fat percentage predicted 2,000-m pursuit speed (R² = 0.90; SEE = 1.5, p < , 0.001). Between 90 and 97% of the variance in the sprint performance of adolescent cyclists can be explained by mechanical and anthropometric parameters, derived from a single visit to the laboratory. The tests and equations provided can be adopted by coaches to predict performance and set appropriate training intensities.