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Title: Assessing the impact of global warming on worldwide open field tomato cultivation through CSIRO-Mk3·0 global climate model
Contributor(s): Silva, R S (author); Kumar, Lalit (author)orcid ; Shabani, Farzin (author); Picanco, M C (author)
Publication Date: 2017
DOI: 10.1017/s0021859616000654
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Abstract: Tomato ('Solanum lycopersicum' L.) is one of the most important vegetable crops globally and an important agricultural sector for generating employment. Open field cultivation of tomatoes exposes the crop to climatic conditions, whereas greenhouse production is protected. Hence, global warming will have a greater impact on open field cultivation of tomatoes rather than the controlled greenhouse environment. Although the scale of potential impacts is uncertain, there are techniques that can be implemented to predict these impacts. Global climate models (GCMs) are useful tools for the analysis of possible impacts on a species. The current study aims to determine the impacts of climate change and the major factors of abiotic stress that limit the open field cultivation of tomatoes in both the present and future, based on predicted global climate change using CLIMatic indEX and the A2 emissions scenario, together with the GCM Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)-Mk3·0 (CS), for the years 2050 and 2100. The results indicate that large areas that currently have an optimum climate will become climatically marginal or unsuitable for open field cultivation of tomatoes due to progressively increasing heat and dry stress in the future. Conversely, large areas now marginal and unsuitable for open field cultivation of tomatoes will become suitable or optimal due to a decrease in cold stress. The current model may be useful for plant geneticists and horticulturalists who could develop new regional stress-resilient tomato cultivars based on needs related to these modelling projections.
Publication Type: Journal Article
Source of Publication: The Journal of Agricultural Science, 155(3), p. 407-420
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Place of Publication: United Kingdom
ISSN: 0021-8596
Field of Research (FOR): 050206 Environmental Monitoring
050101 Ecological Impacts of Climate Change
050204 Environmental Impact Assessment
Peer Reviewed: Yes
HERDC Category Description: C1 Refereed Article in a Scholarly Journal
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Appears in Collections:Journal Article
School of Environmental and Rural Science

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