Siqueria da Silva, Ricardo

Kumar, Lalit

Shabani, Farzin

Picanço, Marcelo Coutinho

2017

Background: 'Neoleucinodes elegantalis' is one of the major insect pests of 'Solanum lycopersicum'. Currently, 'N. elegantalis' is present only in America and the Caribbean, and is a threat in the world's largest 'S. lycopersicum'-producing countries. In terms of potential impact on agriculture, the impact of climate change on insect invasions must be a concern. At present, no research exists regarding the effects of climatic change on the risk level of 'N. elegantalis'. The purpose of this study was to develop a model for 'S. lycopersicum' and 'N. elegantalis', utilizing CLIMEX to determine risk levels of 'N. elegantalis' in open-field 'S. lycopersicum' cultivation in the present and under projected climate change, using the global climate model CSIRO-Mk3.0. Results: Large areas are projected to be suitable for 'N. elegantalis' and optimal for open-field 'S. lycopersicum' cultivation at the present time. However, in the future these areas will become unsuitable for both species. Conversely, other regions in the future may become optimal for open-field 'S. lycopersicum' cultivation, with a varying risk level for 'N. elegantalis'. Conclusion: The risk level results presented here provide a useful tool to design strategies to prevent the introduction and establishment of 'N. elegantalis' in open-field 'S. lycopersicum' cultivation.

Pest Management Science, 73(3), p. 616-627

1526-4998

1526-498X

https://hdl.handle.net/1959.11/20177

en

John Wiley & Sons Ltd

Potential risk levels of invasive 'Neoleucinodes elegantalis' (small tomato borer) in areas optimal for open-field 'Solanum lycopersicum' (tomato) cultivation in the present and under predicted climate change

Journal Article

Publication