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Title: Potential risk levels of invasive 'Neoleucinodes elegantalis' (small tomato borer) in areas optimal for open-field 'Solanum lycopersicum' (tomato) cultivation in the present and under predicted climate change
Contributor(s): Siqueria da Silva, Ricardo (author); Kumar, Lalit (author)orcid ; Shabani, Farzin (author); Picanco, Marcelo Coutinho (author)
Publication Date: 2017
DOI: 10.1002/ps.4344
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Abstract: Background: 'Neoleucinodes elegantalis' is one of the major insect pests of 'Solanum lycopersicum'. Currently, 'N. elegantalis' is present only in America and the Caribbean, and is a threat in the world's largest 'S. lycopersicum'-producing countries. In terms of potential impact on agriculture, the impact of climate change on insect invasions must be a concern. At present, no research exists regarding the effects of climatic change on the risk level of 'N. elegantalis'. The purpose of this study was to develop a model for 'S. lycopersicum' and 'N. elegantalis', utilizing CLIMEX to determine risk levels of 'N. elegantalis' in open-field 'S. lycopersicum' cultivation in the present and under projected climate change, using the global climate model CSIRO-Mk3.0. Results: Large areas are projected to be suitable for 'N. elegantalis' and optimal for open-field 'S. lycopersicum' cultivation at the present time. However, in the future these areas will become unsuitable for both species. Conversely, other regions in the future may become optimal for open-field 'S. lycopersicum' cultivation, with a varying risk level for 'N. elegantalis'. Conclusion: The risk level results presented here provide a useful tool to design strategies to prevent the introduction and establishment of 'N. elegantalis' in open-field 'S. lycopersicum' cultivation.
Publication Type: Journal Article
Source of Publication: Pest Management Science, 73(3), p. 616-627
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons Ltd
Place of Publication: United Kingdom
ISSN: 1526-498X
Field of Research (FOR): 090903 Geospatial Information Systems
050101 Ecological Impacts of Climate Change
050204 Environmental Impact Assessment
Peer Reviewed: Yes
HERDC Category Description: C1 Refereed Article in a Scholarly Journal
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