Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/1959.11/20023
Title: An ecological risk assessment for managing and predicting trophic shifts in estuarine ecosystems using a Bayesian network
Contributor(s): McDonald, K S (author); Tighe, Matthew  (author); Ryder, Darren  (author)
Publication Date: 2016
DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.08.014
Handle Link: https://hdl.handle.net/1959.11/20023
Abstract: Estuaries are dynamic systems at the transition between freshwater and marine ecosystems. In this study, a spatially and temporally explicit Bayesian network (BN) was developed for a tidally connected estuary in southeastern Australia. The BN provides an environmental risk assessment (ERA) for the probability of a shift to a eutrophied state based on markers of pelagic and benthic primary production. The model was created to provide an initial framework of system knowledge based on empirical data, with the intention that the model and its linkages be iteratively developed as more information becomes available. The BN was investigated for its potential to predict trophic shifts and provide a framework for evidence-based decision making. Model assessment was conducted through both sensitivity analysis and scenario tests. Through evaluation and updating, the BN can provide information on the key nutrients and bio-physical mechanisms regulating changes in trophic state in estuarine ecosystems.
Publication Type: Journal Article
Source of Publication: Environmental Modelling & Software, v.85, p. 202-216
Publisher: Pergamon Press
Place of Publication: United Kingdom
ISSN: 1873-6726
1364-8152
Field of Research (FOR): 050206 Environmental Monitoring
050102 Ecosystem Function
050205 Environmental Management
Socio-Economic Outcome Codes: 960506 Ecosystem Assessment and Management of Fresh, Ground and Surface Water Environments
960507 Ecosystem Assessment and Management of Marine Environments
960501 Ecosystem Assessment and Management at Regional or Larger Scales
Peer Reviewed: Yes
HERDC Category Description: C1 Refereed Article in a Scholarly Journal
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Appears in Collections:Journal Article
School of Environmental and Rural Science

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