An ecological risk assessment for managing and predicting trophic shifts in estuarine ecosystems using a Bayesian network

Author(s)
McDonald, K S
Tighe, Matthew
Ryder, Darren
Publication Date
2016
Abstract
Estuaries are dynamic systems at the transition between freshwater and marine ecosystems. In this study, a spatially and temporally explicit Bayesian network (BN) was developed for a tidally connected estuary in southeastern Australia. The BN provides an environmental risk assessment (ERA) for the probability of a shift to a eutrophied state based on markers of pelagic and benthic primary production. The model was created to provide an initial framework of system knowledge based on empirical data, with the intention that the model and its linkages be iteratively developed as more information becomes available. The BN was investigated for its potential to predict trophic shifts and provide a framework for evidence-based decision making. Model assessment was conducted through both sensitivity analysis and scenario tests. Through evaluation and updating, the BN can provide information on the key nutrients and bio-physical mechanisms regulating changes in trophic state in estuarine ecosystems.
Citation
Environmental Modelling & Software, v.85, p. 202-216
ISSN
1873-6726
1364-8152
Link
Publisher
Elsevier Ltd
Title
An ecological risk assessment for managing and predicting trophic shifts in estuarine ecosystems using a Bayesian network
Type of document
Journal Article
Entity Type
Publication

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