Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/1959.11/19560
Title: Effects of climate change on economic feasibility of future date palm production: An integrated assessment in Iran
Contributor(s): Shabani, Farzin  (author); Cacho, Oscar J  (author)orcid ; Kumar, Lalit  (author)orcid 
Publication Date: 2016
DOI: 10.1080/10807039.2016.1162089
Handle Link: https://hdl.handle.net/1959.11/19560
Abstract: This study set out to build a model identifying areas where a positive Net Present Value (NPV) could be obtained from date palm ('Phoenix dactylifera') using CLIMEX and six parameters including (a) suitable soil taxonomy and physicochemical soil properties, (b) slopes of less than 10°, (c) land uses suitable for date palm cultivation, (d) availability of roads, (e) availability of water, and (f) low risk of the lethal disease caused by 'Fusarium oxysporum' f. spp. in the years 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2100 in Iran. Here, we utilized the A2 scenario and two global climate models (GCMs): CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS) and MIROC-H (MR). Economic feasibility was estimated based on the assumption that the decision to plant date palms by landholders is motivated by a desire to maximize their return to land. Our results indicate that only 5450 km² of southern Iran will be highly profitable for cultivation of date palm, with NPV > 10,000, while profitable (with NPV between 4200 and 10,000) and moderately profitable (with NPV between 0 and 4200) areas would cover only 500 and 50 km², respectively, in future. A comparison of mean outputs from the two chosen GCMs and those of the economic and CLIMEX output combination indicates that only about 0.01% of areas from both GCMs will be highly economically viable for cultivation of date palm. In this study we ensure that the predictions become robust, rather than producing hypothetical findings, limited purely to publication.
Publication Type: Journal Article
Source of Publication: Human and Ecological Risk Assessment, 22(5), p. 1268-1287
Publisher: Taylor & Francis Inc
Place of Publication: United States of America
ISSN: 1080-7039
1549-7860
Field of Research (FOR): 090903 Geospatial Information Systems
050206 Environmental Monitoring
050101 Ecological Impacts of Climate Change
Peer Reviewed: Yes
HERDC Category Description: C1 Refereed Article in a Scholarly Journal
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Appears in Collections:Journal Article
School of Environmental and Rural Science

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