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Title: Modelling the current and potential future distributions of the sunn pest 'Eurygaster integriceps' (Hemiptera: Scutelleridae) using CLIMEX
Contributor(s): Al-Jaryian, Rasha Ayad Jawad (author); Kumar, Lalit (author)orcid ; Taylor, Subhashni (author)orcid 
Publication Date: 2016
DOI: 10.1002/ps.4247
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Abstract: BACKGROUND: The sunn pest, 'Eurygaster integriceps' (Hemiptera: Scutelleridae), is an economically significant pest throughout Western Asia and Eastern Europe. This study was conducted to examine the possible risk posed by the influence of climate change on its spread. CLIMEX software was used to model its current global distribution. Future invasion potential was investigated using two global climate models (GCMs), CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS) and MIROC-H (MR), under A1B and A2 emission scenarios for 2030, 2070 and 2100. RESULTS: Dry to temperate climatic areas favour sunn pests. The potential global range for 'E. integriceps' is expected to extend further polewards between latitudes 60° N and 70° N. Northern Europe and Canada will be at risk of sunn pest invasion as cold stress boundaries recede under the emission scenarios of these models. However, current highly suitable areas, such as South Africa and central Australia, will contract where precipitation is projected to decrease substantially with increased heat stress. CONCLUSION: Estimating the sunn pest's potential geographic distribution and detecting its climatic limits can provide useful information for management strategies and allow biosecurity authorities to plan ahead and reduce the expected harmful economic consequences by identifying the new areas for pest invasion.
Publication Type: Journal Article
Source of Publication: Pest Management Science, 72(10), p. 1989-2000
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons Ltd
Place of Publication: West Sussex, United Kingdom
ISSN: 1526-4998
Field of Research (FOR): 050101 Ecological Impacts of Climate Change
050103 Invasive Species Ecology
Peer Reviewed: Yes
HERDC Category Description: C1 Refereed Article in a Scholarly Journal
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