Modelling the current and potential future distributions of the sunn pest 'Eurygaster integriceps' (Hemiptera: Scutelleridae) using CLIMEX

Title
Modelling the current and potential future distributions of the sunn pest 'Eurygaster integriceps' (Hemiptera: Scutelleridae) using CLIMEX
Publication Date
2016
Author(s)
Al-Jaryian, Rasha Ayad Jawad
Kumar, Lalit
( author )
OrcID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9205-756X
Email: lkumar@une.edu.au
UNE Id une-id:lkumar
Taylor, Subhashni
( author )
OrcID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1624-0901
Email: btaylo26@une.edu.au
UNE Id une-id:btaylo26
Type of document
Journal Article
Language
en
Entity Type
Publication
Publisher
John Wiley & Sons Ltd
Place of publication
United Kingdom
DOI
10.1002/ps.4247
UNE publication id
une:19687
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The sunn pest, 'Eurygaster integriceps' (Hemiptera: Scutelleridae), is an economically significant pest throughout Western Asia and Eastern Europe. This study was conducted to examine the possible risk posed by the influence of climate change on its spread. CLIMEX software was used to model its current global distribution. Future invasion potential was investigated using two global climate models (GCMs), CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS) and MIROC-H (MR), under A1B and A2 emission scenarios for 2030, 2070 and 2100. RESULTS: Dry to temperate climatic areas favour sunn pests. The potential global range for 'E. integriceps' is expected to extend further polewards between latitudes 60° N and 70° N. Northern Europe and Canada will be at risk of sunn pest invasion as cold stress boundaries recede under the emission scenarios of these models. However, current highly suitable areas, such as South Africa and central Australia, will contract where precipitation is projected to decrease substantially with increased heat stress. CONCLUSION: Estimating the sunn pest's potential geographic distribution and detecting its climatic limits can provide useful information for management strategies and allow biosecurity authorities to plan ahead and reduce the expected harmful economic consequences by identifying the new areas for pest invasion.
Link
Citation
Pest Management Science, 72(10), p. 1989-2000
ISSN
1526-4998
1526-498X
Start page
1989
End page
2000

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