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Title: Changing global risk of invading greenbug 'Schizaphis graminum' under climate change
Contributor(s): Al-Jaryian, Rasha Ayad Jawad (author); Kumar, Lalit  (author)orcid 
Publication Date: 2016
DOI: 10.1016/j.cropro.2016.06.008
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Abstract: The geographical range, abundance, growth rate, survival and mortality of insects are largely influenced by abiotic factors such as temperature and humidity. When suitable, these factors can positively influence the abundance of insect pests. It is in this light that the influence of climate change, particularly global warming, has direct bearing to crop protection. In this study, we simulated the potential distribution of the greenbug or wheat aphid 'Schizaphis graminum' (Rondani) (Aphididae), a major global pest of wheat, using the climate matching tool CLIMEX (CLIMatic indEX) in global warming scenarios. To predict the potential distribution of the insect on CLIMEX at time periods 2030, 2070 and 2100, we utilize two global climate models (GCMs) at two emission scenarios. The result of CLIMEX modelling shows that the favourable climatic areas for 'S. graminum' are subtropical to temperate at the current time. With global warming, under different scenarios current suitable and highly suitable areas in the northern hemisphere are expected to expand to higher latitudes by 2030 towards 2100; while areas in the southern hemisphere, where the pest's living areas already have high temperature ranges, the occurrence of the pest will contract by 2030 since temperatures will exceed its heat limits. This study assists in predicting the potential risk areas that may be threatened by this pest in the future, providing supportive information for agricultural management practices and aid in the preparation of strategic plans to avoid possible economic damage posed by future expansion of the pest population due to climate change.
Publication Type: Journal Article
Source of Publication: Crop Protection, v.88, p. 137-148
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Place of Publication: The Netherlands
ISSN: 1873-6904
Field of Research (FOR): 050101 Ecological Impacts of Climate Change
050204 Environmental Impact Assessment
050103 Invasive Species Ecology
Socio-Economic Outcome Codes: 960405 Control of Pests, Diseases and Exotic Species at Regional or Larger Scales
960303 Climate Change Models
Peer Reviewed: Yes
HERDC Category Description: C1 Refereed Article in a Scholarly Journal
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