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https://hdl.handle.net/1959.11/18399
Title: | Future climate effects on suitability for growth of oil palms in Malaysia and Indonesia | Contributor(s): | Paterson, R Russell M (author); Kumar, Lalit (author) ; Taylor, Subhashni (author) ; Lima, Nelson (author) | Publication Date: | 2015 | Open Access: | Yes | DOI: | 10.1038/srep14457 | Handle Link: | https://hdl.handle.net/1959.11/18399 | Abstract: | The production of palm oil (PO) is highly profitable. The economies of the principal producers, Malaysia and Indonesia, and others, benefit considerably. Climate change (CC) will most likely have an impact on the distribution of oil palms (OP) ('Elaeis guineensis'). Here we present modelled CC projections with respect to the suitability of growing OP, in Malaysia and Indonesia. A processoriented niche model of OP was developed using CLIMEX to estimate its potential distribution under current and future climate scenarios. Two Global Climate Models (GCMs), CSIRO-Mk3.0 and MIROC-H, were used to explore the impacts of CC under the A1B and A2 scenarios for 2030, 2070 and 2100. Decreases in climatic suitability for OP in the region were gradual by 2030 but became more pronounced by 2100. These projections imply that OP growth will be affected severely by CC, with obvious implications to the economies of (a) Indonesia and Malaysia and (b) the PO industry, but with potential benefits towards reducing CC. A possible remedial action is to concentrate research on development of new varieties of OP that are less vulnerable to CC. | Publication Type: | Journal Article | Source of Publication: | Scientific Reports, v.5, p. 1-11 | Publisher: | Nature Publishing Group | Place of Publication: | United Kingdom | ISSN: | 2045-2322 | Fields of Research (FoR) 2008: | 090903 Geospatial Information Systems 040104 Climate Change Processes 070104 Agricultural Spatial Analysis and Modelling |
Fields of Research (FoR) 2020: | 401302 Geospatial information systems and geospatial data modelling 370201 Climate change processes 300206 Agricultural spatial analysis and modelling |
Socio-Economic Objective (SEO) 2008: | 960303 Climate Change Models 960310 Global Effects of Climate Change and Variability (excl. Australia, New Zealand, Antarctica and the South Pacific) (excl. Social Impacts) 970107 Expanding Knowledge in the Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences |
Socio-Economic Objective (SEO) 2020: | 190501 Climate change models 190507 Global effects of climate change (excl. Australia, New Zealand, Antarctica and the South Pacific) (excl. social impacts) 280101 Expanding knowledge in the agricultural, food and veterinary sciences |
Peer Reviewed: | Yes | HERDC Category Description: | C1 Refereed Article in a Scholarly Journal |
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Appears in Collections: | Journal Article |
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