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Title: A hybrid modelling approach to simulating foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks in Australian livestock
Contributor(s): Bradhurst, Richard A (author); Roche, Sharon E (author); East, Iain J (author); Kwan, Paul H  (author); Garner, Graeme M (author)
Publication Date: 2015
Open Access: Yes
DOI: 10.3389/fenvs.2015.00017Open Access Link
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Abstract: Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious and economically important viral disease of cloven-hoofed animals. Australia's freedom from FMD underpins a valuable trade in live animals and animal products. An outbreak of FMD would result in the loss of export markets and cause severe disruption to domestic markets. The prevention of, and contingency planning for, FMD are of key importance to government, industry, producers and the community. The spread and control of FMD is complex and dynamic due to a highly contagious multi-host pathogen operating in a heterogeneous environment across multiple jurisdictions. Epidemiological modeling is increasingly being recognized as a valuable tool for investigating the spread of disease under different conditions and the effectiveness of control strategies. Models of infectious disease can be broadly classified as: population-based models that are formulated from the top-down and employ population-level relationships to describe individual-level behavior; individual-based models that are formulated from the bottom-up and aggregate individual-level behavior to reveal population-level relationships; and hybrid models which combine the two approaches into a single model. The Australian Animal Disease Spread (AADIS) hybrid model employs a deterministic equation-based model (EBM) to model within-herd spread of FMD, and a stochastic, spatially-explicit agent-based model (ABM) to model between-herd spread and control. The EBM provides concise and computationally efficient predictions of herd prevalence and clinical signs over time. The ABM captures the complex, stochastic and heterogeneous environment in which an FMD epidemic operates. The AADIS event-driven hybrid EBM/ABM architecture is a flexible, efficient and extensible framework for modeling the spread and control of disease in livestock on a national scale. We present an overview of the AADIS hybrid approach, a description of the model's epidemiological capabilities, and a sample case study comparing two strategies for the control of FMD that illustrates some of AADIS's functionality.
Publication Type: Journal Article
Source of Publication: Frontiers in Environmental Science, v.3, p. 1-20
Publisher: Frontiers Research Foundation
Place of Publication: Switzerland
ISSN: 2296-665X
Fields of Research (FoR) 2008: 080309 Software Engineering
080110 Simulation and Modelling
080605 Decision Support and Group Support Systems
Fields of Research (FoR) 2020: 461201 Automated software engineering
460207 Modelling and simulation
460507 Information extraction and fusion
Socio-Economic Objective (SEO) 2008: 830302 Dairy Cattle
890201 Application Software Packages (excl. Computer Games)
830301 Beef Cattle
Socio-Economic Objective (SEO) 2020: 100402 Dairy cattle
220401 Application software packages
100401 Beef cattle
Peer Reviewed: Yes
HERDC Category Description: C1 Refereed Article in a Scholarly Journal
Appears in Collections:Journal Article

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