An Economic Assessment of Red Meat Demand in the People's Republic of China

Abstract

Continuing income growth and the development of the Chinese economy during the 1990s and the expectation that it will continue to the year 2000 are likely to produce a considerable change in Chinese food consumption patterns which are moving from a staple starchy food diet to one that includes high protein livestock products. Given an increase in demand and the possibility of a constrained domestic supply, demand for red meat may not be met in China. The present study is designed to examine this possibility. Changes in demand and consumption for red meat are explained by changes in prices and income within a complete demand system. Panel data from 1979 to 1992 are used to study to determine the demand relationships for pork, beef and mutton in China. The SUR technique was adopted as an appropriate least square estimator of the Double Logarithm model of retail demand for red meat and the Slutsky symmetry restrictions were imposed. Projections on demand for red meat between 1993 and 2000 are undertaken using a standard method.