Impacts of climate change on invasive 'Lantana camara' L. distribution in South Africa

Title
Impacts of climate change on invasive 'Lantana camara' L. distribution in South Africa
Publication Date
2014
Author(s)
Taylor, Subhashni
( author )
OrcID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1624-0901
Email: btaylo26@une.edu.au
UNE Id une-id:btaylo26
Kumar, Lalit
( author )
OrcID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9205-756X
Email: lkumar@une.edu.au
UNE Id une-id:lkumar
Type of document
Journal Article
Language
en
Entity Type
Publication
Publisher
Academic Journals
Place of publication
Nigeria
DOI
10.5897/AJEST2014.1705
UNE publication id
une:15879
Abstract
Climate change and invasive species are now seen as two major contributors to global biodiversity change. The combined effects of these two factors have serious implications for biodiversity and agriculture. 'Lantana camara' L. ('sensu lato') (lantana) is a woody shrub that is highly invasive in many countries of the world including South Africa where it has a profound impact on biodiversity, water resources and agriculture. Strategies to manage and control this highly noxious weed will benefit from information on its likely potential distribution under current and future climate. CLIMEX, a species distribution modelling software, was used to develop a process-oriented niche model to estimate its potential distribution under current and future climate scenarios. Model calibration was carried out with phenological observations and geographic distribution records of lantana. The potential distribution of lantana under current climate showed a good match to its current distribution in South Africa. Under future scenarios, the climatically suitable areas for lantana were projected to contract in the northern provinces of Limpopo and Mpumalanga as well as coastal areas of Western Cape Province. However, lantana's potential distribution may expand further inland into new areas in KwaZulu-Natal and Eastern Cape provinces. The results suggest that lantana management initiatives in areas where climatic suitability is likely to decline should focus on controlling the density of invasion rather than curbing range expansion. On the other hand, areas where climatic suitability is projected to increase will require ongoing monitoring to prevent further range expansions.
Link
Citation
African Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, 8(6), p. 391-400
ISSN
1996-0786
Start page
391
End page
400

Files:

NameSizeformatDescriptionLink