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The works presented at the 3rd Global Conference on Experiential Learning in Virtual Worlds in Lisbon, Portugal represent a resurgence in the popularity of the use of virtual worlds. Utilizing the Gartner Hype Cycle, we hope to bring an awareness of the resurgence and expansion of the many affordances that virtual worlds offer. We use the Hype Cycle to outline the future of virtual worlds, and how they will continue to be used during this Hype Cycle 'upswing'. The organization Gartner Incorporated (Gartner) has a long-standing reputation for analysing, researching, and disseminating information regarding technology. Every year, Gartner publishes a statement on the state of technologies and their relative maturity according to their 'hype cycle'. The hype cycle has five distinct sequential zones in which technology passes through, and at various paces. The five phases are: A) Technology Trigger: 'A potential technology breakthrough kicks things off. Early proof-of-concept stories and media interest trigger significant publicity. Often no usable products exist and commercial viability is unproven.' B) Peak of Inflated Expectations: 'Early publicity produces a number of success stories - often accompanied by scores of failures. Some companies take action; many do not.' C) Trough of Disillusionment: 'Interest wanes as experiments and implementations fail to deliver. Producers of the technology shake out or fail. Investments continue only if the surviving providers improve their products to the satisfaction of early adopters.' D) Slope of Enlightenment: 'More instances of how the technology can benefit the enterprise start to crystallize and become more widely understood. Second- and third-generation products appear from technology providers. More enterprises fund pilots; conservative companies remain cautious.' E) Plateau of Productivity: 'Mainstream adoption starts to take off. Criteria for assessing provider viability are more clearly defined. The technology's broad market applicability and relevance are clearly paying off.' |
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