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https://hdl.handle.net/1959.11/14978
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DC Field | Value | Language |
---|---|---|
dc.contributor.author | Coventry, William L | en |
dc.contributor.author | Dalgleish, LI | en |
dc.date.accessioned | 2014-05-02T12:34:00Z | - |
dc.date.issued | 2014 | - |
dc.identifier.citation | International Journal of Climatology, 34(6), p. 2097-2107 | en |
dc.identifier.issn | 1097-0088 | en |
dc.identifier.issn | 0899-8418 | en |
dc.identifier.uri | https://hdl.handle.net/1959.11/14978 | - |
dc.description.abstract | We explored errors interpreting the seasonal climate forecast (SCF) statement "In the next 3 months, the probability of exceeding median rainfall is 30%" used by the Australian media. Study one comprised 73 farmers and 12 climate staff and (1) developed a five-item multiple-choice questionnaire assessing understanding for the SCF, and (2) assessed errors interpreting the statement. The farmers who incorrectly interpreted the statement (29%) as forecasting a wetter season than normal had a lower understanding of the statement, in contrast to farmers making the correct interpretation (56%) and the climate staff. The statement appeared to be misinterpreted as a specific value of rain that was above the median by 30%, because of (1) difficulty conceptualizing 'above median rainfall' and 'below median rainfall' as distinct events, and (2) the percentage being interpreted as a specific value and not as a notion of chance. Study two, with 72 laypersons, showed more errors and slower responses with statements of probabilities less than 50% (i.e. 30%) than statements of probabilities greater than 50% (i.e. 70%), explained by the positive connotation biases of the event 'above median rainfall' and/or the use of the term 'probability'. | en |
dc.language | en | en |
dc.publisher | John Wiley & Sons Ltd | en |
dc.relation.ispartof | International Journal of Climatology | en |
dc.title | Farmers' accuracy interpreting seasonal climate forecast probability | en |
dc.type | Journal Article | en |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1002/joc.3825 | en |
dc.subject.keywords | Climatology (excl Climate Change Processes) | en |
dc.subject.keywords | Psychology | en |
local.contributor.firstname | William L | en |
local.contributor.firstname | LI | en |
local.subject.for2008 | 040105 Climatology (excl Climate Change Processes) | en |
local.subject.for2008 | 170199 Psychology not elsewhere classified | en |
local.subject.seo2008 | 960203 Weather | en |
local.profile.school | School of Psychology | en |
local.profile.school | Psychology | en |
local.profile.email | wcovent2@une.edu.au | en |
local.output.category | C1 | en |
local.record.place | au | en |
local.record.institution | University of New England | en |
local.identifier.epublicationsrecord | une-20140429-161648 | en |
local.publisher.place | United Kingdom | en |
local.format.startpage | 2097 | en |
local.format.endpage | 2107 | en |
local.identifier.scopusid | 84899492428 | en |
local.peerreviewed | Yes | en |
local.identifier.volume | 34 | en |
local.identifier.issue | 6 | en |
local.contributor.lastname | Coventry | en |
local.contributor.lastname | Dalgleish | en |
dc.identifier.staff | une-id:wcovent2 | en |
local.profile.orcid | 0000-0003-0864-5463 | en |
local.profile.role | author | en |
local.profile.role | author | en |
local.identifier.unepublicationid | une:15193 | en |
local.identifier.handle | https://hdl.handle.net/1959.11/14978 | en |
dc.identifier.academiclevel | Academic | en |
local.title.maintitle | Farmers' accuracy interpreting seasonal climate forecast probability | en |
local.output.categorydescription | C1 Refereed Article in a Scholarly Journal | en |
local.search.author | Coventry, William L | en |
local.search.author | Dalgleish, LI | en |
local.uneassociation | Unknown | en |
local.identifier.wosid | 000337681300027 | en |
local.year.published | 2014 | en |
local.subject.for2020 | 370202 Climatology | en |
local.subject.for2020 | 520199 Applied and developmental psychology not elsewhere classified | en |
local.subject.seo2020 | 180104 Weather | en |
Appears in Collections: | Journal Article |
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