Global output growth and volatility spillovers

Abstract

This article examines discernable patterns of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth co-movements across 29 countries, using consistent time series data (1912-2008). Of these countries, only 12 are found to form three statistically significant groupings (i.e. G6-six Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) European countries, G4-four Anglo-Saxon countries, and G2-two major Asian countries). One may then conclude that, inter alia, geographical proximity, cultural ties, and the level of socio-economic and financial ties among countries determine the global systematic co-movements of growth rates. Our results indicate that any recession in the US initially engulfs other Anglo-Saxon countries as well as G6 and G2 countries, before exerting its adverse knock-on effects to the rest of the world. A Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (MGARCH) model is also used to examine the transmission of GDP growth across these three groups and their corresponding volatility spillovers. We find significant bi-directional cross-mean spillovers between the G4 and G6 blocs. In terms of cross-volatility spillovers, the estimated persistence varies from a maximum 0.959 (G4-G6) to a minimum of 0.832 (G2-G4).